- Policymakers will keep the Eurozone intact by taking key steps towards fiscal union, with ECB role being critical.
- ECB will cut the policy rate to €75 billion but, launching QE only if the debt crisis intensifies again in quarter four.
- Fiscal deleveraging headwinds may tip the EURO Area into recession but, ECB easing should help to underpin a noticable recovery in 2013.
- Away from the baseline there is a risk policy may not do enough to keep the EURO intact and thereby trigger a MAJOR RECESSION!
- EURO Area inflation to remain above 2% until late 2012.
- New President elected in France.
- Signs that there will be a new German Chancellor.
- Arthur O Hara will win the Euro Millions Lottery.
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